This post previously appeared in Poets and Quants
This is the third of four posts on how AI has impacted our Lean LaunchPad class and what we did about it.
Part 1: The Year AI Came For Us
Part 2: AI Killed the MVP – Long Live the IUP
Part 3: This Post
Part 4: Lean LaunchPad – The Next Generation
The Lean LaunchPad has successfully accommodated 15 years of evolution of technology and markets – until now. AI is not only changing our classroom; it is changing everything outside the classroom.
I needed to understand those external changes so the class could change with it.
The class I designed in 2011 focused on teaching founders how to understand a company’s entire business model, not just the product features and customers. However, there were four important elements outside a classroom or a startup that would affect its success.
- Venture capital (how much startups could raise, when they could raise and who they could raise it from)
- How startups built their products (core tech platforms and development tools)
- The cost of building products (time to market, team size, capital requirements)
- Customer Adoption (how did they evaluate, buy, deploy and use products. And the speed in which they did that. And customer build versus buy criteria.)
The Lean LaunchPad class was designed to teach founders to use Lean Methods to derisk their new ventures — all while emulating the speed and tempo of 2011 startups.
The sidebar below summarizes what each of those types of companies looked like in 2011 compared to 2026. Skip this if you have a good memory.
The bottom line is that the world is a very different place and operates at a different pace from when I first designed the class, changes that AI has dramatically accelerated.
Looking at this comparison several things jump out:
- Bottlenecks for adoption and scale still exist, they’ve just moved elsewhere.
- Product/Market fit needs market-specific targeted end points
- Customers are willing to be design partners
- Finding defensible moats is critical
Product/Market Fit Needs Specific Targets
When I looked at this table it struck me that for 15 years, we used the term “product/market fit” as a one-size-fits-all phrase to describe the intersection between Stakeholders and the product features they needed/wanted. It managed to cover end users, influencers, recommenders, requirements writers, regulators, etc. across deep tech, life science, defense. Up until now it worked well enough.
Today, product/market fit is evolving. In enterprise software it is becoming Agent/Outcome fit; in hardware, it’s digital twins and physical-world models; in life sciences, computationally tested endpoints. When we next teach the class, we will replace generic product/market fit with category-specific evidence: outcome/agent fit for enterprise, mass creation and testing for consumer, digital-twin-to-physical fit for hardware, endpoint-clinical-evidence fit for life sciences, and testing with standardized or validated external assessments for education.
AI Enables Faster Time to Market
While we need to teach founders to “think deeply” in the first half of the class, we also need to teach them “to act quickly.”
To do that, the second half of the class will ask teams to acquire one or more Design Partners as evidence of Customer Validation. A Design Partner is a co-developer who first provides feedback, data, workflow access, and real-world testing in exchange for early access, preferential terms, or influence over the product. The partner commits scarce resources: staff time, data, integration effort, permissions, test environments, changes to workflow and the ability to influence the product.
In Part 4, how all the pieces fit together to create a new Lean LaunchPad Course design.

Filed under: Lean LaunchPad, Teaching |


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The comparative table in this post is brilliant and spot on. Breaking down how the external drivers (capital, velocity, and customer adoption) have shifted from 2011 to 2026 makes it crystal clear why the bottleneck has moved from building to distribution and integration. Excellent analysis.
The evolution in product/market fit can be understood through the evolution in transactions costs. Every buyer faces a measurement problem: how do I verify that this thing delivers value before I commit? Each new “fit” names the cheapest verification that the relevant gatekeeper trusts. An enterprise measures outcomes, the FDA measures endpoints, a school measures test scores, and an engineer measures the gap between twin and device.
Product experiments have gotten cheaper, so the shape and stage of commitment has transformed. It looks more granular to me. Economies of scale will be defined less by economies of cost in product and more by economies in adaptability to local and temporary needs.
I’m a bit puzzled about how several of your suggested replacements for product/market fit seem to measure efficacy rather than demand. For example, a drug might move an endpoint and still fail to win payer coverage; or a validated twin might say nothing about whether anyone buys the device.
This has been an incredible series and I’m looking forward to Part 4. As always, thank you for your public service.
Reframing product/market fit as market-specific endpoints rather than one catch-all phrase is a sharp observation, since a regulator, an enterprise buyer and an end user each define ‘fit’ very differently. The point that adoption bottlenecks haven’t disappeared but just moved elsewhere also rings true when AI shrinks build time but not procurement cycles. Looking forward to seeing how that shows up in the redesigned class.