The Coming Chip Wars

A version of this article appeared in War on the Rocks.


Controlling advanced chip manufacturing in the 21st century may well prove to be like controlling the oil supply in the 20th. The country that controls this manufacturing can throttle the military and economic power of others.

The United States just did this to China by limiting Huawei’s ability to outsource its in-house chip designs for manufacture by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), a Taiwanese chip foundry. If negotiations fail, China may respond and escalate, via one of many agile strategic responses short of war, perhaps succeeding in coercing the foundry to stop making chips for American companies – turning the tables on the United States.

Short of war, there would be no obvious way to get those foundries back. Without them, the U.S. defense and consumer electronics industries will be set back at least five years — and because China has its own advanced chip foundries, it could become the world leader in technology for the next decade or more.

Here’s why.  And how they may do it.

And why the world just got a lot more dangerous.

There are two types of companies in the chip industry.

  1. Companies like Intel, Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron design and make their own products (microprocessors and memory chips) in factories that they own
  2. There are also foundries, which fabricate chips designed by consumer and military customers; TSMC in Taiwan is the largest of these in the world

The chips that TSMC makes are found in almost everything: smartphones (i.e. Apple iPhones), high-performance computing platforms, PC’s, tablets, servers, base stations and game consoles, Internet-connected devices like smart wearables, digital consumer electronics, cars, and almost every weapon system built in the 21st century. Around 60% of the chips TSMC makes are for American companies.

In 2012, a bipartisan committee of the U.S. House of Representatives investigated whether the Chinese company Huawei had put backdoors into its equipment that enabled it to spy on data therein. The committee found that Huawei could not or would not explain its relationship with the Chinese government and did not comply with U.S. laws, The report recommended that no government or contractor systems include Huawei systems. In 2019, the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security added Huawei to its Entity List, effectively limiting the sale or transfer of American technology to the company, (though a series of licenses have been granted to waive the restrictions in some cases.)

This month, the Commerce Department required overseas semiconductor firms that use American technology and equipment to apply for a license before selling to Huawei. The order was targeted at TSMC, which is Huawei’s main supplier of advanced chips; without these, Huawei will be at a competitive disadvantage against Apple or Samsung in the smartphone industry, and against Cisco and others in the market for network equipment. (Some analysts have pointed out the order has potential loopholes.) Next up, it’s likely Washington will prohibit sales to China of the equipment used to make chips, which comes from companies like Applied Materials, KLA and Lam.

TSMC was forced to choose sides and picked the U.S. – For Now
In May 2020 TSMC announced it was going to build a $12 billion foundry in Arizona to make some of its most advanced chips. Foundries take at least three years to build and the most expensive factories on earth. Construction on TSMC’s facility is planned to start in 2021, but actual chip production will not start until 2024.

But while the TSMC announcement is welcome, if and when the Arizona foundry is built, it will only be able to make about a quarter of the chip production of TMSC’s largest semiconductor fabrication plants and would amount to just 3 percent of the manufacturing capability that TSMC currently operates in Taiwan. There they have four major manufacturing sites, called GigaFabs, each of which have 6 or 7 fabs producing thirteen million wafers a year. Compare that to the quarter million wafers they intend to produce in the U.S. in 2024. So if the United State lost TSMC in China, one new American plant would not make up the difference in capacity.

China’s Semiconductor Industry
A decade ago, China recognized that its initial success as the world’s low-cost factory was going to run its course. As the cost of Chinese labor increased, other countries like Vietnam could fill that role. As a result, China needed to build more advanced and sophisticated products on par with the United States. However, most of these products required custom chips — and China lacked the domestic manufacturing capability to make them. China uses 61 percent of the world’s chips in products for both its domestic and export markets, importing around $310 billion worth in 2018. China recognized that its inability to manufacture the most advanced chips was a strategic Achilles Heel.

China devised two plans to solve these problems. The first, the Made in China 2025 plan, is the country’s roadmap and financing vehicle to update China’s manufacturing base from making low-tech products to rapidly developing ten high-tech industries including electric cars, next-generation computing, telecommunications, robotics, artificial intelligence, and advanced chips. The goal is to reduce China’s dependence on foreign technology and promote Chinese high-tech companies globally. In addition, to encourage Chinese high-tech companies to go public in China rather than the United States, the Chinese government set up its own version of the Nasdaq called the STAR market (Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board).

China’s second plan is the National Integrated Circuit Plan, China’s roadmap for building an indigenous semiconductor industry and accelerating chip manufacturing. The goal is to meet its local chip demand by 2030.

Make no mistake, these are not government pronouncements that don’t end up going anywhere. This is a massive national effort. China is spending over a hundred billion dollars to become a world leader in developing their semiconductor industry. The China Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund or Big Fundhas raised $51 billion – $22 billion in 2014 and another $29 billion in 2019. China has used the capital to start 70+ projects in the semiconductor industry (such as building fabs and foundries, acquiring foreign companies, and starting joint ventures) and have gone from zero to making 16% of the world’s chips, though today their quality is low. Going forward, China plans to start investing in chip design software, advanced materials, and semiconductor manufacturing equipment.

How Do the Chinese View Our Actions?
China believes that this is their century and sees American actions as designed to hold China back from its proper place in the world. Given the importance of controlling the supply of advanced chip manufacturing, China would be forced to respond if the United States cut off their access to this supply.

The question is whether China will view the action against Huawei as sanctions against a single company or a portent of further action against China’s access to advanced chips.

What Has China Learned From Our Prior Actions?
In the 21st century the U.S. has blinked even when its own interests were at stake. From the perspective of some China policymakers, America is exhausted from endless wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and will not fight again. They see that the United States is divided politically, distracted by the COVID-19 pandemic and unlikely to risk American lives for something as abstract as a chip factory.

Paper protests
When China has acted aggressively over the past couple of decades, it has seen that the American response has largely been paper protests. In 2012 China occupied the Scarborough Shoal and took control of it from the Philippines. As China was not ready to militarily confront the U.S. at the time, in hindsight the U.S. could have parked a carrier strike group over those shoals and likely prevented their plans for military construction. Instead, Washington blinked and did nothing but send a nasty note.

Today, the Spratly Islands have new Chinese bases bristling with surface-to-air missiles, cruise missiles and fighter jets, which has changed the calculus for a war in the western Pacific. Any attempt by the United States to control the air space in the area will face serious opposition and heavy losses. What was previously an uncontested American “lake” is now contested by China.

Up until this week Hong Kong, while part of China, was a democracy with guarantees of freedom of speech, assembly and the press. China recently tore up that agreement and is preparing to impose the same draconian limits on speech, assembly and press that muzzle the rest of China. There’s not much the U.S. can do other than express concerns and perhaps remove Hong Kong’s special trade status. But China doesn’t care. They’ve already factored the American response into their move and decided it was worth it, with the cynical calculation that any U.S. response will make Hong Kong poorer, and that any business Hong Kong loses will mostly end up in other parts of China. And a poorer Hong Kong will be punishment to its citizens for standing up for the rights they had been promised.

The day after China’s move on Hong Kong, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang left out the word “peaceful” in referring to Beijing’s desire to “reunify” with Chinese-claimed Taiwan, an apparent policy change.

The lack of an effective American response to these events has shown Chinese leadership the unwillingness of America to forcefully engage in Asian affairs. This will embolden China’s next move.

China’s Goals and Options
To respond to the United States cutting off Huawei’s access to Taiwan’s most advanced chip foundries, the Chinese government is likely thinking through their next moves. Their planning starts with they want to accomplish. It may look something like this in the preferred order.

  1. Return to the Status Quo – Restore Huawei’s Access to TSMC fabs to secure a steady supply of chips
  2. Don’t let the restrictions escalate
  3. Turn the Tables – Convince TSMC/Taiwan to allow China to have sole access to TSMC
  4. Kick Over the Table – Ensure that the TSMC fabs can’t be used by anyone

China’s Options
So how would China achieve these goals?

China may wish to avoid any escalation perhaps by accepting the American restrictions as they currently are with a promise that they will go no further.  This return to the status quo, with a restoration of Huawei’s access to TSMC’s foundry, may simply require negotiating some form of trade deal or agreeing to restrictions on the sale of Huawei networking gear (34% of their revenue). This kind of deal would let the Huawei consumer and enterprise businesses (66% of their revenue) survive and thrive. However, it requires the Chinese to back down. And they may have decided that the Rubicon has been crossed.

If China doesn’t negotiate but retaliates, the danger is that the United States ups the ante further by prohibiting TSMC from working with more Chinese firms, and/or bans the sale of the equipment used to build chips to any company in China. Such escalation may lead China to perceive that the U.S. actions are not a dispute about Huawei, but a salvo in a wider economic war.

If it gets to that point, China’s plans no longer are how to negotiate with the U.S. but how to force TSMC to do its bidding. And as TSMC is in Taiwan, in what China claims is a province of China, things can get interesting.

The most obvious option is to simply carry out the threat the Chinese government has made since 1949: that there is only one China, and Taiwan is a rebellious province, and that they will reunify China, by force if necessary. An invasion or blockade of Taiwan would give Chinese hardliners a reason to try out all their new military equipment, while distracting the masses from the pandemic economic downturn. This option has the highest risk of provoking an American military response, and while possible it’s extremely unlikely. While these more aggressive scenarios might seem implausible, China’s behavior has become more aggressive and more risk-tolerant as the COVID-19 pandemic, which began in Wuhan, roils the world.

China can achieve their immediate goals of 3 and 4 above and weaken Taiwan without an outright invasion.

One option is a major disinformation campaign against TSMC and the United States that would make current influence campaigns emanating from China pale in comparison. This would emphasize that the U.S. is the aggressor, illegally waging economic war against China. It would announce that since Taiwan is a province of China, China has the right to restrict TSMC sales to the U.S. and that China will enforce an embargo of any TSMC sales to American-affiliated companies.

This could be coupled with an equally massive disinformation campaign to the Taiwanese people, pointing out to them that the United States won’t go to war over a semiconductor company, and that China’s requestsare fair and reasonable. (How effective a disinformation campaign would be is up for debate, given that Chinese campaigns in Taiwan’s January elections did not result in the election of China’s preferred candidate.) China could offer a no-invasion pledge in exchange, while reminding the Taiwanese government what they already know: regardless of promises the United States can’t defend them. Even if the United States attempted to intervene, there is a serious debate unfolding about how useful legacy American platforms – especially carriers – would be in a shooting war with China.

There’s a high probability Taiwan will still refuse despite all of this, so China would then ratchet up the pressure.

China might then start some type of trade war with Taiwan to ensure access, following the playbook Beijing used to coerce Korea over Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) or Australia over its recent decision to lead a call for investigating the origins of the novel coronavirus. On the more extreme end, these Taiwanese chip foundries might be subject to an aggressive campaign of sabotage.

Finally, they could nationalize TSMC’s two less advanced fabs in mainland China. Next, if there’s no agreement, China could launch a precision guided missile strike against one of the older, less advanced TMSC fabs in Taiwan to send a message they’re serious.  They could announce they’ll destroy one foundry each week until TMSC agrees to sell only to China. Even if they destroy all the TSMC foundries in Taiwan it will still be a net win for China. It’s highly unlikely Taiwan would go to war with China over this. The end result would be that U.S. military and consumer technology would have no advanced foundries, but China would.

What Would the United States Do?
Would the United States go to war with China over chips? The loss of TSMC would mean we’d be rapidly scrambling to find alternate sources. We could turn to Intel to restart their foundry business or turn to Samsung or even Global Foundries. But the transition and recovery would take at least three to five years if not more and tens of billions of dollars.  In the meantime, we’d have second-tier status in technology.

The outcome could depend on the timing of Chinese actions.

When Might China Take Action?

An October Surprise – Before the 2020 election
The current U.S  administration may not want to start a war over a chip factory before the 2020 presidential election, but it is unpredictable enough that a campaign season focused on China policy could change the calculus.

After the 2020 election
If the presidency changes hands, the incoming administration might de-escalate and reverse original restrictions, but a lot can happen between now and January 2021.

A Trump administration in its second term and no longer worrying about reelection might reverse the ruling in exchange for a better trade deal.

Downside: Lots of economic uncertainty for the next seven months exacerbating China’s pandemic recovery. More immediate action might be required.

Lessons Learned

  • The dispute over Huawei’s access to TSMC has highlighted how vulnerable American industry is to the loss of its sole supply of advanced chips.
  • If the matter cannot be solved by negotiation, China may perceive the restrictions as economic warfare and rapidly escalate, potentially threatening Taiwan
  • It is not at all clear that Washington has thought through the consequences of its actions here, or that the current administration has considered chip supply as part of a wider supply chain security and national industrial policy.
  • Given that China has more positive options than the United States, it is surely time for those in charge to consider where this might lead

17 Responses

  1. Very interesting, thanks for sharing.

    Minor typos:

    “Foundries take at least three years to build and are the most expensive factories on earth.

    “Their planning starts with what they want to accomplish.”

    “… and that China will enforce an embargo of any TSMC sales to American-affiliated companies.”


  2. Dear Steve, Good Morning

    Excellent information about the “Chip War” I would like to know if you have this text in Spanish and/or Portuguese. I would like to share on my network on Linkedin. I would like to help “awaken” and inform Brazilian and Argentine businessmen about this friendship.

    I await comments


    Marta Elisa Eberle

    De: Steve Blank Enviada em: quinta-feira, 18 de junho de 2020 10:04 Para: Assunto: [New post] The Coming Chip Wars

    steveblank posted: “A version of this article appeared in War on the Rocks. Controlling advanced chip manufacturing in the 21st century may well prove to be like controlling the oil supply in the 20th. The country that controls this manufacturing can throttle th”

    • Marta, try, the translation is excellent. You might need to do it in two chunks, since the article is long, but the quality is so good that little supervision is needed.

  3. Steve, I wonder what EXACTLY is the point of all such “hypothesis” – or as you so eloquently described in the past: making “wild guesses”. IMHO, we worry way too much about what China or Russia might do, instead of recommending what North America & Europe should do next…

    Dwelling on China Communist Party’s (CCP) plans of action against the West – is like analyzing how the Nazis were going to invade Poland in WWII. It could have been far more advantageous for the entire world if the UK and France analyzed their military capabilities to fight the Nazis, instead.

    So, the sooner we will abandon failed globalization doctrine and embrace more equitable capitalism 2.0 in N/A – we’ll rebuild the middle class! I would rather spend more time on that instead of on China’s “impending elevation to primacy over America” – unless one is enamored with the “fake capitalism” of China, or a “crony capitalism” of Putin…

  4. Thank you for a very informative and well-thought-out article highlighting the critical situation of chip supply to the US.

  5. This article and almost every single article I’ve seen on this topic It seems to always make the same as miscalculation… The same miscalculation that China seems to make and it is for some reason every article and China seems to think that it is going to be China against America… When the reality is it will be China against America the UK Germany France Australia Canada Japan India and most likely South Korea…

    Does anyone really believe if China were to invade Taiwan or bomb Taiwan semiconductor or do anything in any way militarily aggressive or coercive that the entire world would not come down on China? It’s already happening The entire world is already turning against China…Which is why China is doing everything it can to appease the Americans while still trying to save face to the citizens..But if they miscalculate and believe the rest of the world will stand by and watch to see the outcome of America versus China then China is going to cease to exist for the communist party very soon…Because without a doubt America is and always will be strong because it has allies and China is and always will be weak because it has none..

  6. also the idea or the insane assumption that America’s military is legacy platforms while China’s military is new is extremely laughable… China’s military is all old Russian tech and untested and undoubtedly low quality new Chinese tech… China possesses no 5th generation fighters in operation and it’s two aircraft carriers are old Russian tech… America’s military is tested and the most technologically advanced military in existence.. If you really think some DP21 ballistic missiles are going to be able to hit a well-fortified aircraft carrier a couple hundred miles away then you don’t understand how ballistic missiles work… If China miscalculates they will be in for a swift and rude awakening about how mighty the western militaries are… Those new island bases China created in the South China Sea would be all blown apart within 24 hours.. Why do you think America has allowed them to build it?! Because it’s an island made of dredged sand It would take a small handful of bombs to blow those installations into oblivion They are seriously no threat at all…

  7. China could do this, or China could do that, or maybe that, or that, or that…

    All I read is speculation based on your preconceived ideas, without any factual support, or historical precedents.

    Missing from your “analysis” is any mention of the trade war which predates the sanctions against Huawei (and the recent revelations from Bolton’s book (made press yesterday)). And by the way, the Chinese tech industry is more than just Huawei.

    All I see in this is the reemergence of the anti-communist ideology from 40 years ago. It’s the same red-scare rhetoric from the Regan years. There is no easy solution to dismantling the one-party totalitarian rule in China. Also, lets remember that the name “communist” hardly applies to the modern Chinese state.

  8. There’s new technology companies like that consist of open source chip design that relevant large companies have switched to for their security model. Worth looking at.

    Great blog post Steve!

  9. China doesn’t need TSMC. SMIC will have 7nm later this year.

  10. Reblogged this on rPod Coworking Space and commented:


  11. This is obviously an article biased against China. Look, it was US that had woken up China by encouraging them to join the WTO. The main reason is to allow American companies to tap on cheap labour, to increase corporate profits.

    Now that China has moved up the value chain, it tries to stop it marching forward. US initiated trade war against China because of trade deficits and loss of American jobs. But why were the trade deficits and loss of jobs? Its because of the WTO reasons above. In short, its a self inflicted problem.

    And to your comments around the security law in Hong Kong, its such a biased view again. Look, HK people have been protesting by burning down public properties like the metro, setting people on fire amongst others. Yet, not many people were arrested. Why? Because they didn’t have a law to address that. Think about it, how many countries in the world would allow 1-year long protest which destroy public properties?

    The US should just get your act together and focus on how to run faster and win, instead of imposing restrictions on China. Its almost like a corporate bullying a startup. As of now, its such a hypocritical country.

  12. .
    Rest assured that this is the kind of scenario that is regularly gamed and studied at places like the War College and other war intelligentsia organizations. Smart guys have been studying this problem for 30+ years.

    You make a huge mistake in evaluating the readiness of China to engage in an actual shooting war. You extrapolate a single weapon or capability to the entire military. China has a third rate, inexperienced leadership, untested battle doctrine, conscript army that has no combat experience — which is most telling at the Division and higher level.

    At the strategic nuclear level, they have a powerful sting, but one that ensures that Pres Xi is “President for Life” for a very short life.

    Their Navy is a brown water force and will lie on the bottom of the Pacific quickly. Their subs are noisy and easily detected. A detected
    submarine is one whose shelf life has expired.

    The US may lose a couple of aircraft carriers to a first wave Chinese attack, but the retaliation will be brutal as targeting is so precise. As air superiority is gained, as control of the coasts is achieved, interior China and troop assembly areas are easy pickings.

    Those dozen S China Sea atolls are what we call “sitting ducks.” In a war of maneuver and stealth, they are going nowhere. They will be radar blind and have huge craters in their runways making them unusable within the first fifteen minutes of the initiation of hostilities. Fewer than 50 cruise missiles determines this outcome.

    Expect a Marine Recon unit to capture a few of them with a very short fight. The Marines would make very light work of such a thinly defended target. Then they become fixed aircraft carriers for China’s enemies.

    Remember that Beijing is less than an hour flight from Osan, S Korea.

    The Chinese have been threatening Taiwan for half a century +. That 110 mile wide Strait of Formosa/Taiwan is not a small trip and the Chinese will not achieve tactical surprise as the Allies did at Normandy.

    The first wave may well buy its way ashore with massive losses, but the supply chain is not going to bridge that expanse of water.

    Chinese airborne forces may seize an airfield, but, again, they will be unsustainable.

    The Taiwan Army is very good, using top notch American equipment. Expect them to acquit themselves very well as China undertakes a massive amphibious assault — the first one of any significance in its history. This is like a moon shot.

    Taiwan has that most sacred advantage — a peaceful democracy fighting for its homeland against evil.

    I personally predict that the Chinese do NOT obtain a workable toehold and that the Taiwan military sinks almost every landing vessel. It is a very difficult amphibious attack problem as the strait is wide, the necessary off loading of actual assault waves will heighten vulnerability to both rocket and air counterattack. It is too far to load assault troops directly into landing craft.

    There will be an enormous intel challenge. There is no way that the Chinese could mask the concentration and mobilization of the required force.

    Taiwan will not be fighting alone. China fears the creation of a coalition amongst Australia, India (huge second front consideration), S Korea, Japan, and the US. Every one of those countries has a bone to pick with China right now.

    At the highest levels of the Politboro, China still remembers the beating the UN/USA put on them in Korea. It has taken almost 70 years for them to admit they lost 1.5-2MM KIA to our 38K KIA in Korea. This does not include similar losses by NK.

    Capitalism has begun to work its magic on China at the highest levels. Life is so good, I believe they are unlikely to risk that largesse.

    We need to take China literally and to plan as such. Their economic plans are clear and they are executing on them.

    The correct American response is to withdraw all strategic manufacturing from China followed by the rest of it. We just need to face the reality that China is our rival AND our enemy. We need to step up our wariness and action against the likes of Huawei.

    You do the world a great service by framing this discussion as it is long overdue. It is a very manageable problem if we see it for what it is.


  13. It’s amazing how American companies can outsource or relocate everything for profits and not realizing how fucked we will be one day. I hope they are at least getting rich selling us out.

  14. You need EDA software to build chips. EDA industry is dominated by Synospys, Cadence, Mentor – all 3 US Companies. (Mentor is owned by Siemens but headquartered in USA). And all chip manufacturing equipment has some american IP in them. US gov will block access to these to any advanced chinese chipmaker, even TSMC if they are taken over/coerced by the Chinese. So even an outright military invasion will accomplish nothing.

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